5.2 - Voter Turnout

Structural Barriers to Voting

• Voter Registration: some states automatically register citizens, others require self-registration, which can be made easier (online) or harder (in-person only).
• Registration deadlines: many states close registration a few weeks before Election Day, while others allow same-day registration, which tends to raise turnout.

• Voting Procedures: states set the how, when, and where.
• Early Voting: as of 2026, 47 states and D.C. let any voter vote in person before Election Day. Start dates range from as early as 50 days before the election to the Friday before (the average is about 27 days).
• Absentee/Mail-In Voting: varies widely, from universal mail ballots to strict eligibility rules.
• Voter ID Laws: some states require photo ID. Supporters say it prevents fraud; opponents say it functions as voter suppression. More states adopted stricter ID laws after 2020.

• Polling Place Issues: uneven funding and staffing can create long lines, which critics argue discourages voting.

• Other structural factors: U.S. elections are held on a Tuesday, a workday, and Americans are asked to vote often (federal, state, local, and primary elections). Many other democracies vote on a weekend or holiday and register voters automatically, and a few, like Australia, require citizens to vote. These differences help explain lower U.S. turnout.

Election Type, Efficacy, and Demographics

• Election Type: presidential elections draw far more voters than midterms. About 64% of eligible voters voted in 2024, compared with about 46% in the 2022 midterm (University of Florida Election Lab). Primaries and local elections draw even fewer.

• Political Efficacy: the belief that your vote actually matters. Higher efficacy correlates with higher turnout.

• Demographic predictors: older, wealthier, more educated, and more religious people vote at higher rates; women vote slightly more than men; 18-24 year-olds vote the least.

• Competitiveness: close races draw more voters than races where the winner is obvious. Many districts are drawn as safe seats, so some voters feel their vote won't change anything, which lowers efficacy. This is why the redistricting cases Baker v. Carr (1962) and Shaw v. Reno (1993) also connect to turnout (see 5.1).

Factors Affecting Voter Choice

• Party Identification: the single best predictor of how someone votes.

• Political Ideology: closely tied to party ID, conservatives lean Republican, liberals lean Democratic.

• Candidate Characteristics: perceived honesty, competence, and likability matter.

• Contemporary Issues: whatever's dominating the news, immigration, foreign policy, climate, gun control, can shift advantage toward one party or the other.

Demographic Predictors of Voter Choice

• Gender: men lean Republican and women lean Democratic (the gender gap). In 2024, men backed Trump 55% to 43%, while women backed Harris by 7 points.

• Race: in 2024, Black voters backed Harris 83% to 15% (Trump got 8% in 2020), White voters backed Trump 55%, and Asian voters backed Harris 57% to 40%. Hispanic voters split almost evenly, 51% Harris to 48% Trump, after backing Biden 61% to 36% in 2020.

• Age: younger voters lean Democratic and older voters lean Republican. In 2024, voters under 50 favored Harris by 7 points (Biden won them by 17 in 2020), while 54% of voters 50 and older backed Trump.

• Geography: Democrats dominate cities, Republicans dominate rural areas, suburbs are the real battleground.

• Religion: people who attend religious services often lean Republican. In 2024, 64% of voters who attend at least monthly backed Trump, white evangelical Protestants backed Trump 81%, and Catholics backed Trump 55% to 43% (after splitting almost evenly in 2020). Religiously unaffiliated voters, including atheists and agnostics, backed Harris 70% to 28%. Jewish voters lean Democratic.

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